1Q 2025 HDB Quarterly Report – HDB Resale Prices Continue to Climb Despite Seasonal Dip in Transactions

SINGAPORE, 1 April 2025 – According to flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB), the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) rose to 200.9 in the 1Q 2025, marking a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase. The RPI growth was moderate compared to 4Q 2024, and marks the 20th consecutive quarter of price growth, reinforcing ERA Singapore’s forecast of 3% to 6% annual growth for the HDB resale market.

Despite the price increase, resale transaction volume fell by 7.7 % y-o-y to 6,392 units from 1Q 2024, which saw 6,928 transactions. The decline is attributed to seasonal factors and the draw of over 10,000 flats offered through the BTO and Sale of Balance Flat (SBF) exercises in February.

“While the dip in transaction volume was expected due the season lull along with the BTO and SBF launches, we anticipate a rebound in 2Q 2025 as unsuccessful applicants eventually return to the resale market,” said Eugene Lim, KEO, ERA Singapore. “At the same time, the shrinking supply of MOP flats will continue to lend support to prices, especially for newer HDB flats in centrally located and mature estates.”

In 1Q 2025, million-dollar HDB transactions rose to 295 units, a 3.5% increase from the previous quarter. These flats, mostly in mature estates, reflect continued strong demand for choice locations and larger flats with longer remaining leases. Nonetheless, million-dollar HDB flats remain a minority, with over 75% of resale HDBs in 1Q 2025 being transacted under the $750k mark.

Source: data.gov.sg as at 27 March 2025, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

Additionally, the limited supply of MOP flats in 2025 is expected to fall to some 5,100 down from around 8,300 units in 2024, may place further upward pressure on prices, particularly for well-located units not subject to new resale restrictions introduced under the Plus and Prime classifications.

“Apart from private home downgraders, there are increasingly more HDB dwellers willing to upgrade within the HDB market itself, shelling out premium prices to purchase larger homes in central locations with longer leases, such as newly-MOP flats. These homes offer outstanding location attributes, with good transport connectivity, amenities and proximity to good schools, making them a great choice as their next home.”

Looking ahead, transaction volume is expected to recover in Q2 2025, especially as unsuccessful BTO and SBF applicants look toward the resale market. Price growth, however, is projected to moderate, in line affordability thresholds.

“The HDB resale market remains resilient,” Eugene added. “While we expect growth to be more measured this year, demand for quality flats in good locations will stay firm.”

July will see the second BTO launch of the year, offering around 5,400 flats in Bukit Merah, Bukit Panjang, Clementi, Sembawang, Tampines, Toa Payoh, and Woodlands. HDB will also be conducting a second SBF exercise this year. Many of these offerings like Clementi, Toa Payoh and Tampines is expected to be well received.

Within the same period, we should see incentives roll out to further enable home ownership among Singaporeans. These include more second-timer allocation for BTO flats, easier financing through the Deferred Income Assessment (DIA) scheme, priority access to housing near family members through the new Family Care Scheme (Proximity), as well as enabling more families currently staying in rental flats to own homes through the Fresh Start Housing Scheme.

With a reduced supply of MOP flats in 2025, which have been a key driver of resale transactions in recent years, we should see a moderate price growth, and fewer transactions to close out the year. We anticipate an overall 3% – 6% price growth, with 26,000 – 27,000 resale HDB flat transactions by end-2025.

For media enquiries, please contact:

Ning Peh, Senior Marketing Communications Manager, ERA Singapore

Email: ning@era.com.sg

Kaixin Yue, PR Manager, ERA Singapore

Email: kaixin@era.com.sg

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