4Q 2024 HDB Flash Estimates – Resale Prices Peaked Amid Healthy Demand for HDB Flats
- By ERA Singapore
- 2 mins read
- 2 Jan 2025
SINGAPORE, 02 January 2025 – According to the Housing and Development Board (HDB)’s flash estimates, the HDB resale price index rose to 197.7, a 2.5% increase quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in 4Q 2024. This is the 19th consecutive quarter of growth of the HDB Resale Price Index. For the whole of 2024, HDB resale prices have risen at a faster pace of 9.6% compared to 4.9% in 2023.
Resale price has risen faster on the back of strong demand for HDB resale flats and fewer flats meeting the Minimum Occupation Period in 2024 compared to 2023. In 4Q 2024 (up to 30 December), HDB resale transactions totalled 6,314 units, 3.6% lower than the 6,547 units in 4Q 2023. In total, 2024 saw 28,876 HDB resale transactions, marking the highest HDB resale volume seen since 2021 (31,017 units).
“The Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale market saw continued price growth, reaching an all-time high, driven by a healthy demand due to fewer flats meeting the MOP in 2024.” said Eugene Lim, KEO, ERA Singapore.
2024 saw elevated housing interest rates across most of the year as well as notable retrenchments for the first half of the year. With private residential prices continuing to rise, some HDB owners may have chosen to upgrade within the HDB market instead; moving from smaller to larger flats; or from older to newer flats.
Such buyers could have a more comfortable budget allowing them to upgrade to larger, more centrally located homes with longer leases, which in turn helped to boost resale prices. In 4Q 2024, some 270 units million-dollar flats were transacted, bringing the total number of HDB flats surpassing the million-dollar mark in 2024 to a historical high of 1,020. This represents 3.5% of total resale transactions; compared with 1.8% in 2023.
Furthermore, the new classification of Plus and Prime classification BTO flats may have driven more homebuyers to seek out HDB resale homes in central locations. These buyers are unwilling to accept the resale restrictions such as a 10-year Minimum Occupation Period, rental restrictions after MOP, subsidy clawback upon resale and resale income cap on future buyers.
In total, 21,225 new flats were launched in 2024. This consisted of 19,637 BTO flats and 1,588 Sale of Balance Flats (SBF). 2025’s new flat supply will kick off in February, which will see around 5,000 BTO flats, with around 60% of these flats being constructed as Standard flats in new precincts within Yishun and Woodlands.
There will also be over 5,500 flats offered as part of the annual Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise, marking the largest SBF exercise to date. Except for flats launched as part of the October 2024 BTO exercise, the flats offered in the upcoming SBF exercise will not follow the new BTO classification framework. As a result, we should see a strong demand for these flats, especially for those located in prime location.
2024 closed out with a 9.6% y-o-y price growth, as well as reaching 28,876 transactions. This is close to ERA’s forecast for 2024 of 6-9% price growth and 28,000 to 29,000 transactions.
For 2025, ERA expects resale prices to grow at a more measured pace due to the higher price base in 2024 and a reduced supply of MOP flats in 2025, which have been a key driver of price growth in recent years. We anticipate an overall 3% – 6% price growth, with 26,000 – 27,000 resale HDB units expected to move by end-2025.
Table 1: HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) Time Series
Source: HDB, ERA Research and Market Intelligence as at 2 Jan 2025
Chart 2: HDB Resale Volume
Source: data.gov.sg, ERA Research and Market Intelligence as at 02 Jan 2025
*based on flash estimates
Chart 3: HDB Resale Transactions by Price
Source: data.gov.sg, ERA Research and Market Intelligence
For media enquiries, please contact:
Yue Kai Xin, Press Relations, ERA Singapore
Email: [email protected]
