October 2024 Developer Sales Report: Recovery of New Sale Market Led by More Launches

In total, October saw 738 new private homes sold, representing a 84.0% month-on-month (m-o-m) uptick over September’s performance (401 units sold). Year-on-year (y-o-y), new private home sales were also up 263.5% in October, compared to the 203 units sold over the same period in 2023.

This surge in transaction volume was primarily driven by the two new launches – Norwood Grand in Woodlands (OCR) and Meyer Blue along Meyer Road (RCR).

Norwood Grand, the first new launch in Woodlands in 12 years, sold 292 of its 348 units (83.9%) during its launch. The stellar launch day performance was due to the strong pent-up demand, coupled with the lack of supply for new private homes in the vicinity, leading to all 1 to 3-bedroom units being snapped up on its launch day.

Despite new benchmark prices for Woodlands, it was still an attractive opportunity for new home buyers today. At a median of just $2,081 psf, it presented a value buy for new homes, particularly one located near an MRT station. In the first nine months of 2024, new homes in the OCR sold at a median price of $2,145 psf.

Meyer Blue, on the other hand, moved 114 of its 226 units (50.4%) on its launch. The rarity of new freehold units along the prestigious Meyer Road made them highly sought after, particularly units with sea views. Being a freehold project, it captivates homeowners and investors buying for legacy purposes. In October 2024, a total of 124 units were sold at a median price of $3,240.

In October, 534 non-landed private homes were launched. This is was a 22.2% and 888.9% increase m-o-m and y-o-y respectively. Developers are rushing to launch new projects before the year end festive period when many potential buyers are away.

Impact of the Fed’s rate cut announcement in September

On 18 September, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it was finally cutting interest rates after keeping them elevated over the past four years. The cut of 50 basis points lowers the Fed’s target rate range to 4.75% to 5.00%, down from the previous range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

This has largely translated into improved buyer confidence and more activity in the new private home market. Already, we have seen strong homebuyers’ interest in the upcoming launches. In total, Nava Grove, Emerald of Katong and Chuan Park drew more than 29,000 visitors to their respectively show flats over the weekend over the prior weekend. Beyond the strong take up rates at Norwood Grand and Meyer Blue, Chuan Park also sold 696 of its 916 units (76.4%) when it launched on 10 November 2024.

Best-Performing New Launches

Table 1: Top five performing new launch projects (excluding EC) in October 2024

Source: URA, ERA Research and Market Intelligence, ERApro

The top five best-performing projects in October were respectively Norwood Grand (292 units), Meyer Blue (124 units), Pinetree Hill (71 units), Hillock Green (36 units), and Lentor Mansion (29 units).

While Norwood Grand had set new benchmark prices for homes in Woodlands, they were still within the affordable price range for homebuyers today. 1-bedroom units were mostly under $1.1 million, while 2-bedroom units were priced under $1.6 million. Investors see them as value buys in today’s market. On the other hand, 3-bedroom units were all priced under $2 million which sat well for HDB upgraders.

For Meyer Blue, units with sea view are mostly sold out as buyers are willing to pay a premium for such views. The development also has a prestigious address and located within an 8-minute walk to Katong Park MRT Station. Being at the city-fringe, residents have easy and quick access to the Central Business District (CBD).  A shortage of new homes in this location, and a lack of future residential sites nearby provided buyers the impetus required to secure a unit at Mayer Blue.

Pinetree Hill sold a total of 71 units in October, similar to the 72 sold in September. This comes after the second phase of launch, where higher-floor units were released for sale. In contrast, just 80 units were sold between January to August this year. Fresh demand could also have been fuelled by the interest in 8@BT, launched in September, and the upcoming Nava Grove in November.

Hillock Green (36 units) and Lentor Mansion (29 units), both located at the Lentor Hills estate, also saw renewed interest. This could be attributed to the spill over effects from Norwood Grand, located just two MRT stops away at Woodlands South.

Executive Condominium

In the Executive Condominiums (EC) segment, sales of new homes dipped slightly m-o-m, falling from 32 units sold in September to 28 units in October. This comes on the back of no new EC launch since January 2024 when Lumina Grand was launched.

EC sales are likely to pick up when the 504-unit Novo Place in Tengah is launched in November. This injection of fresh stock will also capture buyers’ interest for ECs in the west. They can choose from the remaining units at the nearby Altura (15 units) and Lumina Grand (85 units). In Yishun, North Gaia have another 44 units remaining.

Buyer Profile

Chart 1: Buyer profile for all new non-landed homes excluding ECs 

Source: URA as of 15 Nov 2024, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

Foreigner demand for new non-landed homes (excluding ECs) continued to stay flat in September as 2023’s cooling measures continue to exert their influence on buyer appetite. Despite this, there were 20 new home transactions made by foreign buyers, the highest since May 2023 when there were 29 transactions.

However, the proportion of new non-landed homes have been relatively similar over the past 12 months. Singaporean citizen buyers accounted for 89.7% of total new home non-landed transactions. The past 12-month average stands at 85.9%.

Luxury Properties (Non-Landed Homes $5 Mil and Above)

A total of 31 luxury homes, priced at $5 mil and above, were transacted in October 2024. The highest-priced transaction was a 4,219 sqft unit at 32 Gilstead, which was purchased for $14.5 mil ($3,434 psf) by a foreigner.

Chart 2: Buyer profile for homes transacted at $5mil and more

Source: URA as of 15 Nov 2024, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

What Lies Ahead for the New Private Home Market in Coming Months?

Following September’s recovery, October’s strong performance could also carry onwards into November. Buoyed by improved buyer sentiment and the excitement from the introduction of new highly anticipated projects, current momentum in the market will likely continue.

While Fed rate cuts forecasts may not be as bullish as initially predicted, any additional cuts will bolster market sentiment down the line. However, after the flurry of new launches in November, we do anticipate that the demand in the private home market could taper into December 2024 and January 2025 with the approaching holiday seasons.

At present, there are at least 10 new private developments in the pipeline, potentially yielding more than 4,600 units in total. This includes several mega-developments in popular heartland areas such as Parktown Residence (1,195 units) in Tampines, Chuan Park (916 units) in Serangoon, Emerald of Katong (846 units) in the East Coast area.

At its launch weekend, Chuan Park has already seen 76% of its 916 units snapped up since its launch. Union Square Residences and The Collective at One Sophia have also seen 81 and 37 units sold respectively since their launch in early-November.

Table 2: Potential new launches in 4Q 2024 / 1Q 2025

Source: ERApro, ERA Project Marketing, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

We do expect Emerald of Katong and Nava Grove to perform well when they launch on 16 November.

From January to October 2024, we have seen a total of 3,853 new home units sold. Accounting for current market conditions, ERA projects approximately 5,500 to 6,500 new private homes to be sold by the end of 2024.

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