SINGAPORE, 06 December 2024 – The 1H 2025 Government Land Sales (GLS) program saw an increase in the overall private home supply to 8,505 units, up from 8,140 units in 2H 2024. A total of ten sites were placed on the Confirmed List, comprising six private residential sites, one Commercial & Residential site, and three EC sites.

Collectively, the 1H 2025 GLS Confirmed List includes 5,030 private homes, comprising 980 Executive Condominium (EC) units, while the Reserve List will offer an additional 3,475 residential units. Overall, the private home supply slated for 1H 2025 fell marginally by 0.4% compared to 2H 2024 but remains 7.7% lower than the supply in 1H 2024.

“We believe the steady supply of private homes may help to address the recent pick-up in new home demand, giving homebuyers the overview of a strong pipeline of upcoming launches. Separately, the 1H 2025 GLS sites on the Confirmed List presents aplenty of land-banking opportunities for developers in established HDB estates that tend to attract strong interest from HDB upgraders.”

Chart 1: Residential GLS Sites (No. of Units)

Where are the promising sites?

We believe the Telok Blangah and Dunearn Road sites will present first-mover opportunities for developers of the upcoming new residential precincts.

The Dunearn Road site will be the first private residential development launched following the announcement of Bukit Timah Turf City’s redevelopment plans earlier this year. The private residential site is nestled among the first upcoming HDB flats in Bukit Timah, and we expect the future residents to benefit from ample amenities as the area undergoes transformation.

Kickstarting the Greater Southern Waterfront transformation is the launch of this Telok Blangah Road site, where the former Keppel Golf Course used to be. Like Bukit Timah Turf City, this site will be an exciting prospect due to its central location, as well as being new estates, offering first movers’ advantage.

Within walking distance of Telok Blangah MRT, residents would be able to conveniently access work nodes at one-north, Buona Vista and the National University of Singapore. HarbourFront station, one stop away will also offer an interchange option into the CBD in under 10 minutes. Not to mention, this is the largest site in this GLS launch, offering a large, 740 units in high rise towers with a 4.7 plot ratio.

Next would be the sites located just adjacent to MRT station which includes Hougang Central and Lakeside Drive. The Hougang Central is likely to be developed as an integrated development located just next to the Hougang MRT station, which will also be servicing the Cross Island line when it is completed by 2030. This is also the first launch in Hougang since 2011.

Similarly, the Lakeside Drive site is adjacent to the Lakeside MRT station, making it a choice residential location in the heart of the Jurong Lake District development.

The GLS site at Dorset Road is within the city centre, and can yield around 430 units. The area largely see boutique developments and could see the pent-up demand for larger residential projects. Furthermore, it is within walking distance of Farrer Park MRT, as well as within 1km of Farrer Park Primary School, we should see a fairly competitive bidding process for this site.

Lastly, the three EC sites at Senja Close, Woodlands Drive 17 and Sembawang Road will also be on the radar for developers. Both Senja Close and Woodlands Drive 17 were on the 2H 2024 Reserve List and have been shifted to the 1H 2025 Confirmed list.

Read the full piece here: https://www.era.com.sg/1h-2025-gls-sites/ 

For media enquiries, please contact:

Yue Kai Xin, Press Relations, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected] 

SINGAPORE, 03 Decemeber 2024 – The tender for the Government Land Sale (GLS) sites at Holland Link launched on 3rd December 2024. The site can potentially yield about 230 units. The tender for sale will close at 12 noon on 29 July 2025.

Rare, Tranquil Site in Bukit Timah

The Holland Plain precinct is slated as one of URA’s three upcoming precincts alongside Bayshore and Kampong Bugis. As part of development plans, the Masterplan envisions the precinct to feature an abundance of park spaces.

Singaporeans today are less deterred by residential sites located near columbariums, as evidenced by the resilient residential demand in areas like Mount Vernon and Bishan.

 The site’s prime location in Bukit Timah could be an advantage as residents have access to a variety of Singapore’s top schools in within a 2km radius. This could be a plus factor for families with young children looking for priority admission into these schools.

The site is located near to Singapore’s Rail Corridor, which offers residents a convenient option for lifestyle activities and a retail component, the Rail Mall.

Plans for the development of the Holland Plain precinct will emphasize on the inclusion of green spaces and garden living, and introduce the concept of car-lite commute in the area while also improving the connectivity to transport nodes in the future.

Right Sizers from Landed Homes

Given its location within an established residential enclave, the location will appeal to residents living in surrounding landed homes. These could include owners looking to right-size or those looking to stay near their extended families.

Site’s Location Could Overshadow Potential as Emerging Precinct

The site will be leading the development of the precinct, with an estimated total of up to 2,500 new homes planned for development. Developers could bid for the site to leverage on first-mover advantage by injecting the first 230 units in the pipeline.

The Holland Link site is the smallest GLS site on the 2024 GLS Confirmed List, highlighting the potential when undertaking on such a palatable development size in a prime residential area.

Given the height constraints, developers may choose to position the project as a low-rise, prime development in Bukit Timah within Holland, and developers will be in no hurry to sell out the project.

The recent Faber Walk GLS site, which was located a distance away from transport nodes and amenities, closed with only three bids. This further illustrates developers’ weaker sentiments towards such sites in recent tenders, and could be similarly reflected in the bids for the Holland Link site.

Other Considerations Influencing Developers’ Sentiment

Recent GLS sites have been assigned a longer window for developers to submit bids. With a total of seven residential sites currently open for tender, saturation could occur in tender process for these sites. Hence, we may not observe the same level of interest for the Holland Link site that developers have shown for previous emerging townships.

Conclusion

We can expect the site to receive a muted response similar to that observed at Faber Walk. A total of two to three bids could be observed, from developers who are keen in revitalising the market with new units.

SINGAPORE, 03 December 2024 – The tender for the Government Land Sale (GLS) sites at Chuan Grove launched on 3rd December 2024. The site can potentially yield about 555 units. The tender for sale will close at 12 noon on 8 July 2025.

Attractive Location in the Lorong Chuan Area

The Chuan Grove site is within a 5-minute walk to Lorong Chuan MRT station on the Circle Line, connecting residents to the North-South Line at Bishan and North-East line one station away. Additional stations between HarbourFront and Marina Bay will also be added to the Circle Line by 2026 to complete the MRT line loop.

The site is also located one street away from major roads such as the Central Expressway, and residents can enjoy a 10-minute commute to the Central area of Singapore. Despite being located within a residential enclave, the area is surrounded by a variety of educational institutions and within 1km from nearby facilities. Residents can experience an ideal lifestyle, enjoying the convenience of being in proximity to a suite of amenities.

Demand from Landed Estate Right-sizers and HDB Upgraders

Residents from landed estates in Serangoon Gardens, Chiltern, Bartley and Serangoon Central, form a strong pool of right-sizer profiles. Thus, we can expect demand from residents living in these nearby landed enclaves looking to right size their living spaces.

Demand could also come from HDB upgraders living near the site. Within the next four years, an estimated number of 3,815 flats (4-room and larger) in Toa Payoh are set to fulfil their MOP, with the Chuan Grove site one of the options for buyers to upgrade to.

On the other hand, residents of HDB flats in older estates nearby such as Bishan and Toa Payoh could seek to upgrade their homes as well. The median transaction price of 5-room flats in the last 10 months at Bishan and Toa Payoh are $792,000 and $828,000 respectively, which could contribute to a new private home in the area.

Given the increasing number of million-dollar flats in neighboring towns Serangoon, Bishan and Toa Payoh, overall purchasing power is expected to increase. By October 2024, an estimated 20% of million-dollar flats transacted in the year were from these towns. This could also fuel buyers’ available cash on-hand, further boosting demand from HDB upgraders.

Lack of Planned GLS Sites in Lorong Chuan, Possibility of Waiting for Future Collective Sales

Prior to Chan Park’s launch in November 2024, Cardiff Residence was the last launch in 2011, indicating that supply of new homes in Lorong Chuan is limited.

Given the lack of future GLS sites in Lorong Chuan, future developments are more likely to come from en blocs of older condos. We can expect to see similar collective sales in the future, given that a few collective sales have been successful in the area. This includes Cardiff Residence, redeveloped from Cardiff Court, and The Chuan Park which was sold for $890 mil ($980 psf ppr).

Developers Could Compete to Ride on Chuan Park’s Success

Even though we saw the recent successful collective sales at Thomson View, GLS sites like Lorong Chuan are highly attractive since GLS sites have fewer encumbrances.

Developers could be encouraged by Chuan Park’s better-than-expected sales performance and will likely place competitive bids to capitalise on the spillover effects from the pent up demand in the vicinity.

Older condos have been the only options as private residential homes in the Lorong Chuan area for over a decade. Expected pent-up demand translated to an overwhelming response at Chuan Park’s launch, with 76% of the development sold at an average of $2,579 psf at the project’s launch weekend.

The batching of the closing of tenders of the Chuan Grove and Holland Link marks the first two sites to close in 2H 2025, and is indicative of the lengthier tender periods observed for recent GLS sites. This also highlights the efforts made by URA to maintain a healthy pace of the release of new sites in the private residential market.

Conclusion

The Chuan Grove site could be one of the more hotly contested sites on the 2024 GLS Confirmed List given its attractive attributes. Hence, we can expect strong contest between bidders, attracting up to four or five bids.

Developers could also take cues from the overwhelming demand at Chuan Park’s launch weekend and submit more bullish bid prices accordingly. Thus, we can expect bid prices ranging from $571 mil to $600 mil which translates to a land cost upwards of $1,200 psf ppr.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

For media enquiries, please contact:

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]

SINGAPORE, 29 November 2024 – The Ministry of Finance and Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore have jointly issued a press release announcing a one-off property tax rebate for all owner-occupied residential properties in 2025.

The one-off property tax rebate of 20% for Owner-Occupied HDB flats, and 15%, capped at $1,000, for owner-occupied private residential properties in 2025. The rebate will automatically offset any property tax payable. The adjustment of all Annual Value Bands of the Owner-Occupied Residential Property Tax Rates would be adjusted from 1 January 2025 to account for significant increases in residential Annual Value (AV) over the last two years.

While this is a one-off property tax rebate in 2025 for owner-occupied residential properties, any assistance from the government to help defray costs is always welcome. Since this is a one-off rebate with a cap of S$1,000, the impact is not expected to be significant.

With the revision of the first AV band from $8,000 to $12,000, all one- and two-room HDB flats will continue not to pay Property Tax in 2025.

Assuming there is no change in their Annual Values; with the one-off property tax rebate and the revised Annual Value bands, all Owner-Occupied HDB flats and over 90% of Owner-Occupied private residential properties, may be paying lower property taxes in 2025.

How much property tax savings can Singaporeans expect?

The median annual rent for a 3-bedroom RCR condo is approximately $72,000 and the homeowner will need to pay $4,658 in property taxes. In 2025, the homeowner can enjoy a one-off property tax rebate of $699.

But not all private property owners will benefit from the full 15% tax rebate due to the $1,000 cap. For example, a homeowner of a 3-bedroom unit in CCR with a property tax liability of $9,940. Instead of receiving a 15% tax rebate that amounts to $1,491, they will only be entitled to $1,000.

Table 1: Annual Value and Property Tax for Private Properties

Source: IRAS and URA as of 29 Nov 2024, ERA Research and Market intelligence
*AV band based on 2024 tiers

Table 2: Annual Value and Property Tax for HDB

Source: IRAS and HDB as of 29 Nov 2024, ERA Research and Market intelligence

AV is based on IRAS’s annual assessment of the annual rent of the property; it is not based on the actual rent of the property. While the rental index of private residential properties is 4.0% lower y-o-y, rents still have not bottomed out.

Hence, this 15% to 20% rebate may be a quicker stop-gap measure to help Singaporeans mitigate cost-of-living concerns. Even though the rebate amount is not significant, it is part of the government’s continued commitment to help Singaporeans cope with the higher cost of living.

 

END OF PRESS RELEASE

For media enquiries, please contact:

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]

SINGAPORE, 26 November 2024 – The tender for the Government Land Sale (GLS) sites at Bayshore Road launched on 26th November 2024. The site can potentially yield about 515 units. The tender for sale will close at 12 noon on 18 March 2025.

Plum Location Slated for Future Development

Residents of the Bayshore area have direct access to major roads such as ECP which directly connects the OCR area to central Singapore with a 15-minute commute time. The site will also be the first development to be integrated with Bayshore MRT station, such that residents will have seamless access to the Thomson East-Coast Line (TEL).

Families with children may appreciate the site’s convenient location in proximity to a variety of educational institutions offering primary to tertiary education within a 1 to 2km radius. This includes schools such as Temasek Primary School, Temasek Secondary School and Temasek Junior College.

The Bayshore area has been highlighted as one of Singapore’s upcoming townships, buoyed by The Bayshore Masterplan. Development is set to enhance overall connectivity and improve on the availability of amenities in the area for residents, both existing and new.

Additional cycling networks will be developed in-line with the government’s vision to develop a car-lite neighbourhood, while connecting Bayshore with Round Island Route and the upcoming corridor from East Coast Park to Changi Beach.

Furthermore, some units at the Bayshore Road site could have unobstructed sea views given that a segment of the development faces East Coast Park.

Demand from HDB Upgraders, Older Condo Homeowners and Right-sizers from Nearby Landed Enclaves

With the Bayshore area being largely undeveloped since existing projects launched more than two decades ago, the addition of 515 of an estimated 3,000 new private homes leads major initiatives in revitalising the area.

Current residents of older projects nearby could be familiar with the area, and are likely to upgrade to a unit the Bayshore Road site. They can benefit from refreshed leases and owning a brand-new home in the area.

The site could also potentially attract HDB upgraders given that an estimated 2,012 flats will also fulfil their MOP within the next two years. The median price of 5-room and 4-room flats of less than 15 years transacted in Bedok at $976,500 and $815,000 respectively from January 2024, which could contribute to the down payment for a new home in Bayshore.

The site is also in proximity to numerous private landed housing enclaves, such as the Kew and Sennett Estates. Demand could come from the sizable population of landed home owners, with older owners seeking to right-size their homes, or from larger families who want to live in the same project.

The last new launch at Siglap Road (Seaside Residences) in April 2017 saw 70% of the released units sold at launch. With 60% of the buyers identified from the East, the new launch with an attractive location and pricing highlights the pent-up demand in the area.

Few GLS sites and Failed En Bloc Deals Due to Older Developments’ Size

The last GLS site along East Coast Parkway at Siglap Road (Seaside Residences) was awarded at $624 mil ($858 psf ppr) to the highest of eight bids in 2017. The site’s premium location boasting the unique characteristic of sea views could have attracted developers to contend for the site.

Given the slow supply of GLS sites in the area, new developments could come from en bloc deals instead.

Older condos along East Coast Parkway have significant en bloc potential, however, they could be unsuccessful due to the development’s large size. Previous en-bloc efforts of Laguna Park have failed, with the most recent tender in 2019 at $1.48 billion closing with no applicants.

Mandarin Gardens had also failed to secure the required 80% threshold. A successful en bloc launch of the development could have seen reserve price of $2.88 bil ($953 psf ppr).

Multitude of Opportunities to be Leveraged on by Developers

 The Bayshore Road site marks the first GLS site in Bedok since 2020 and Bayshore area since 1997, highlighting the scarcity of new private residential homes. Given its prime location next to an MRT station, developers could be more willing to fork out a premium to secure the attractive site.

Additionally, Bayshore Road site is one of the more attractive sites on the 2024 GLS Confirmed List. Having observed lukewarm responses for previous sites, developers could have withheld bids to attempt competing for Bayshore.

The palatable size of the development could also be an attractive attribute for smaller developers, which they can leverage on to place competitive bids with lower risks.

Strong indication of homebuyer optimism could also translate to developer confidence in future GLS performance. The wave of new launches in November garnered overwhelming reponse, as Emerald of Katong achieved a record-high with 99% of the development sold, along with Chuan Park with 76% sales during its launch weekend.

Lastly, Bayshore forms one of the three upcoming townships alongside Holland Plain and Kampong Bugis. Thus, the Bayshore estate can also draw similarities to the township development in Lentor. New launches in Lentor have consecutively set the bar for future launch prices. It will be in the developers’ best interest to leverage on first-mover advantage in penetrating the market for private residential homes in Bayshore.

Strong Competition Between Developers to be Expected

Despite headwinds faced by developers in the market, the Bayshore site could be the land parcel many developers have been waiting for this year. Thus, we can expect the bidding competition to be set abuzz with around four to six bids.

\While we do not expect bid prices to be too excessive, developers’ confidence to compete for the site could prevail. Hence, bid prices may range from $1,050 and upwards, translating to a land price of at least $500m.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

For media enquiries, please contact:

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]

SINGAPORE, 26 November 2024 – The tender for the Government Land Sale (GLS) sites at Media Circle A and B launched on 26th November 2024. The site can potentially yield about 325 and 500 units respectively. The tender for sale will close at 12 noon on 4 March 2025 and 29 April 2025.

Under developed Location for Residential Site

The Media Circle Parcels are located at the Southern end of the one-north area, surrounded by the Infocomm Technology and Media precinct of Mediapolis.

Located closer to the Science Park front, the sites are within four bus stops from the heart of the one-north district and one-north MRT station. The sites are accessible through major roads, such as AYE.

The Media Circle area was primarily developed as a business and tech park, with the addition of the residential component accommodating convenient commute in the area. As such, the immediate vicinity may not be sufficiently equipped with amenities to support a residential enclave.

Current housing options in the one-north area mostly revolve around co-living spaces, serviced apartments and hotels. More permanent choices are limited to landed homes in the Wessex precinct, and condominium options are mostly found at the Northern end of the agglomeration at the precinct of Vista.

Demand from Single Professionals and Investors Leveraging on Expat Rental Demand

Smaller units could interest investors given the scarce availability of residences in the Mediapolis area. Investors can tap into a tenant pool comprised of single professionals working in the one-north area who seek convenience in commuting.

With start-up, SMEs and high-value MNCs clusters in the area, investors could also leverage on the foreign professional population who rent properties in the area to avoid incurring the 60% ABSD.

Multitude of Risks Faced by Developers

The one-north and Science Park area currently has an outstanding stock of 118 units, and an estimated number of 355 unlaunched units from the previous Media Circle GLS. The inclusion of Parcel A and Parcel B will introduce 825 new units, bringing the new total to 1,762 since the launch of One North Eden in April 2021, causing a supply glut in the area.

Parcel B has a maximum GFA of 464,129 sq ft, marking it as the largest GLS site in the one-north area. On the other hand, Parcel A’s maximum GFA of 303,865 sq ft makes it the smallest of the three GLS sites at Media Circle. Based on project size alone, developers could be more inclined to choose Parcel A over B due to its more palatable size, reducing developmental risks with a lowered capital outlay.

However, attractive sites such as Bayshore and Chuan Grove are likely to remain closely watched by developers for the rest of the year. Smaller developers may not be able to maintain a competitive edge against larger developers and consortiums. Thus, Media Circle may present itself as an option to pursue.

The Media Circle sites are also less attractive than previous sites in the one-north area, which are located more conveniently to transportation and amenities. Blossoms by the Park is within a 5-minute walk to Buona Vista MRT Station and The Star Vista. The nearest amenities to Media Circle are within a 2km radius and require a longer commute time.

Thus, we expect to see muted bids to compensate for a multitude of risks from developing the residential site, especially since the site is within conventional housing estates and could see a smaller pool of buyers.

Furthermore, Media Circle (Parcel B) tender closes in the same month as Lentor Gardens. We can expect developers to gravitate towards the Lentor site. Lentor Gardens is the last planned GLS site for the area, resulting in a less competitive environment from neighbouring launches as new stock in Lentor depletes. As such, developers could pivot their bids to secure the more attractive site in Lentor instead.

Muted Response from Developers

With a smaller buyer pool than most residential sites to leverage on, developers may not be as keen to compete for the Media Circle sites. Thus, we can expect a lukewarm response of around two bids.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

For media enquiries, please contact:

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]

SINGAPORE, 19 November 2024 – The tender for the Government Land Sale (GLS) site at Faber Walk closed on 19^th November 2024. In total, the site drew interest from three bidders, with the top bid of $349.9 million (or $900 psf ppr) submitted by a consortium, consisting developers GuocoLand (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., TID Residential Pte. Ltd. And Intrepid Investments Pte. Ltd.

Here is the list of all parties who participated in the bidding process for the GLS site:

Developers Continue to Take a Cautious Stance Towards the Market

The highest bid $349.9m ($900 psf ppr), portrayed a difference of 8.8% compared to the second highest bid of $321.3 mil ($827 psf ppr). We had initially anticipated bid prices to exceed $950 psf ppr. However, the outcome revealed a more measured market view, likely because the site is not in an established mass-market housing estate.

With three bids received for this site, response from developers falls short from previous bidding activity for sites near Faber Walk

Previous sites in the area received strong responses from developers, with an overwhelming number of 18 bidders for Waterfront @ Faber in 2014, and an average of seven bids across the sites for Parc Riveria, Twin View and Whistler Grand in subsequent years.

The bid price for the Faber Walk site comes 12.5% higher than that of Whistler Grand, the last GLS site in the area awarded at $472 mil ($800 psf ppr).

Future Project Could be a Premium Product

With its location in the vicinity of the Faber Walk landed enclave, the future development could be marketed as a premium project, targeted at the landed enclave. Given the plot ratio, it is likely to be constructed as a low-rise, low-density project of about 400 units with a large, regular-shaped plot. The development will hold views over the nearby landed estate, and the Pandan River.

This is supported by the likely demographic of buyers, who are likely to come from the nearby landed estate, purchasing units as a means to right-size their assets while still staying within the same, familiar environment.

Those who grew up living in the estate might also consider buying into this project to have their own property and space, while being within a comfortable distance to take care of their parents.

This is further compounded by the fact that there is no nearby HDB estate to create demand for the project as an upgrading product.

Muted number of bids received Amidst a Saturated Market

As a result, the site could have been perceived as one that does not have the mass market appeal of other sites on the 2H 2024 GLS Confirmed List such as Bayshore Road and Chuan Grove, resulting in the relatively muted response.

Additionally, nearby amenities such as Ayer Rajah Food Centre and Clementi Mall could serve as key selling points for the project. Similarly, Nan Hua Primary School, potentially within a 1km radius of the site, could further enhance its appeal.

Potential Demand and Pricing

The last residential launch in the area saw two new projects debuting just six months apart in 2018. Twin Vew, launched in May, ended its launch weekend with 85% of the development sold at an average price of $1,399 psf. Whistler Grand subsequently sold 65% at launch with average prices of $1,380 psf.

With recent OCR launches such as Chuan Park seeing median launch prices at $2,580 psf, the developers could take cues from this new benchmark pricing and launch the future project in the similar range, at above $2,500 psf.

For media enquiries, please contact:

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]

SINGAPORE, 25 October 2024 

HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) and Transaction Volume

Continuing the trend of moderate price growth for resale flats, we have witnessed an uptick in prices for 3Q 2024, with the Resale Price Index (RPI) rising to 192.9. This represents an increase of 2.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). Additionally, this marks the highest growth observed since 3Q 2022.

Similarly, the volume of resale HDB flat transactions reached 8,142 units in 3Q 2024. This is 21.6% higher compared to the same period last year, which saw 6,695 transactions.

Chart 1: HDB Resale Index vs Number of Transactions

Source: HDB, ERA Research and Market Intelligence as of 25 October 2024

This increase in transaction volume is due to a confluence of factors including unsuccessful applicants from June Build-To-Order (BTO), homebuyers looking for centrally located flats without new restrictions (such as a longer 10-year MOP, resale income ceiling and subsidy clawbacks), and weaker buyers’ sentiment in the private market.

Speaking of BTO flats – the reclassification of BTO flats introduce resale restrictions might have discouraged and deterred homebuyers from purchasing a BTO flat, instead driving them to the resale market.

Large majority of HDB transactions remained affordable

Despite the robust growth in transaction volume, prices for most resale flats remained affordable, with 77.2% of HDB resale transactions under the $750k mark.

Chart 2: HDB Transactions by Price Ranges (3-room and larger flats)

Source: data.gov.sg as of 24 Oct 2024, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

Some 53% of the HDB resale transactions in 3Q 2024 fell between $500k and $750k, a comfortable price range for most Singapore homebuyers. Another 24% fell between $250k and $500k.

Table 1 : Median Prices of HDB Resale Transactions in 3Q2024

*denotes less than 20 transactions recorded in the quarter. Median prices are not shown as results are not representative
Source: HDB as of 25^th October 2024, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

By analysing the median resale prices of HDB flats transacted in the quarter, only 17 of 23 towns featured median transaction prices for 4-room flats below $750k. In addition to this, 23 of the 26 HDB towns featured median 3-room resale prices under $500k. This shows that the large majority of HDB flats remained affordable and accessible to Singaporeans.

Million Dollar Flats – Who Are Buying Them?

Some 331 million-dollar flats were transacted in 3Q 2024, this makes up merely 4.1% of the 8,142 resale transactions. This brings the million-dollar flats in first nine months of 2024 to 750.

Chart 3: HDB Flat Transactions over $1m

Source: HDB as of 24 Oct 2024, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

HDB upgraders who might have traditionally opted to purchase a private condominium have opened their options to purchasing these larger, newer and centrally located million-dollar flats. With the rising prices of private homes, they see the value proposition and are willing to pay for these cream-of-the-crop resale flats.

In addition to this, there are also private property sellers emerging from the 15-month wait-out period with the capital to fund these million-dollar HDB purchases.

Increased Activity in HDB Market as Buyers are Priced out of Private Homes

Some HDB upgraders are being priced out of private homes in 3Q 2024. Looking at non-landed private home caveats, purchasers with HDB addresses fell to 29.7%. This contrasts with 37.2% and 33.8% recorded in 2Q 2024 and 1Q 2024 respectively.

The lower number of condo upgraders likely means that these homebuyers defaulted to the HDB market instead, driving transactions and therefore prices. This homebuyer group has the capital and are willing to purchase million-dollar flats, leading to the rise in transactions.

Outlook for Final Quarter of 2024

The above statistics on the HDB resale market largely reflect the market conditions prior to the lowering of the Loan-to-Value limit for HDB loans from 80% to 75% on 20 August 2024 to cool the resale market and encourage greater prudence among home buyers.

In the final quarter of the year, there will be a month-long school holiday, which normally sees families travelling and more muted transaction activity.

Together with the BTO launch that happened in October that drew in over 35,000 applicants, we expect to see a more moderate demand for resale HDB flats to close out the year.

We can still expect strong demand and competitive prices for larger flats, such as 5-room and Executive flats, as the upcoming Plus and Prime BTO flats do not include 5-room or larger layouts.

The strong performance of the HDB resale market in 3Q 2024, ERA has revised our forecast for the whole year to an estimated total of 29,000 to 30,000 transactions. HDB price is anticipated to grew by another 3-5% price in 4Q 2024, bringing the total price growth for the whole year of 2024 up to 10%.

HDB Leasing

The number of approved applications to rent out HDB flats moderated further by 4.6% from 9,554 cases in 2Q 2024 to 9,118 cases in 3Q 2024. Compared to 3rd Quarter 2023, the number of approved applications in 3rd Quarter 2024 was 7.5% lower. Fewer HDB units are available for rent due to the dwindling number of MOP units and more HDB upgraders in the market. With that, this could push HDB rental prices further in the coming months.

For media enquiries, please contact:

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]

SINGAPORE, 25 October 2024 – Private home price growth inched down in 3Q 2024, largely due to a slowdown in new home price growth, which had previously been a key driver of prices in the private home segment

“We have also seen improved buyer sentiment and more homes sold this quarter despite it being a typical seasonal lull. This is likely due to sound economic conditions and recent Fed interest rate cuts, which have offered some relief to homebuyers even as mortgage rates remain elevated.”

“Buyers are still finding value in resale properties, as demand in the secondary market stayed robust. We continued to see a significant price gap of 31.6% between new launches and resale non-landed private homes this quarter.”

“As such, ERA has revised our forecast for secondary transactions to reach between 14,000 and 15,000 units for the whole of 2024.”

Table 1: Median Non-landed Residential Home Prices

Table 2: Non-landed Units Sold by Price Quantum

“Homebuyers remained sensitive to the overall price quantum. This quarter, a notable 83% of non-landed secondary transactions fell below the $2.5mil price quantum, and 70% of the new home transactions were also within this price range.”

“As we approach the last quarter of the year, we expect to see a strong take-up in new home sales as the bulk of 2024 launches are set to take place then. These include the upcoming launches such Chuan Park, which is the first launch in Lorong Chuan since 2012, and Emerald at Katong in the popular D15 which we think will see good demand. Separately, we have already witnessed strong take up rates at Oct launches such as Meyer Blue and Norwood Grand which sold just above 50% and 84% at their launch weekends respectively.”

“In the run-up to end-2024, the final quarter is expected to see the launch of 8 new private home developments and one executive condo (EC) project. This will yield some 3,500 private homes and 504 EC units, or 4,004 new homes in total.”

The anticipated units slated to launch in 4Q 2024 is expected to overtake the first nine months of 2024. With that we should see a strong take-up in new home sale with the bulk of 2024 launches happening in the last quarter. With that in mind, ERA forecasts new home sales to reach between 5,500 to 6,500 units for all of 2024.”

Table 3: Potential new launches in 4Q 2024

“The rental market appears to have bottomed out, registering its first rental price growth after 3 quarter of decline. We have also observed a surge in non-landed rental contracts. But in 3Q 2024, we saw the completion of 3,953 private residential (including ECs) units which will add more leasing inventory in the market, providing tenants more options in the near futures and may help keep rental price growth in check.”

URA Private Property Index

The All-Residential Property Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). This is a reversal of the previous quarter, which saw prices growing modestly by 0.9% q-o-q.

In the non-landed private home segment, prices rose 0.1% q-o-q in 3Q 2024. This continues 2Q 2024’s trajectory, which posted a 0.6% q-o-q gain in non-landed private home prices.

Spearheading these shifts, only the Rest of Central Region (RCR) posted an increase in non-landed private home prices among regional sub-markets, registering a flattish 0.8% q-o-q uptick in 3Q 2024. In contrast, prices in the Outside Central Region (OCR) remained unchanged q-o-q, while the Core Central Region (CCR) saw a slight drop of 1.1% q-o-q.

In the landed property sub-market, prices shrank by 3.4% q-o-q in 3Q 2024, reversing the 1.9% q-o-q growth rate registered for 2Q 2024.

Chart 1: URA Private Property Price Indexes

Table 4: Change in URA Private Property Price Indexes for 2Q 2024 and 3Q 2024

Transaction Volume

Transaction numbers for all private properties showed a small uptick in 3Q 2024. Based on latest figures released by URA, a total of 5,372 private homes were moved on the primary and secondary market. This represents an 9.3% q-o-q increase from the 4,915 units sold in 2Q 2024.

Notably, this uptick in transaction volume contrasts earlier findings from URA’s flash data, which projected a total of 4,372 private homes sold in 3Q 2024, or a 11.0% q-o-q decline from the previous quarter.

On an annual basis, overall private home transaction numbers increased by 3.3% y-o-y in 3Q 2024, up from the 5,201 units in 3Q 2023.

New Homes (Excluding ECs)

New home sale picked up in 3Q 2024 amid more new home launches. Developers launched 1,284 units in 3Q 2024, more than doubling that in 2Q 2024. This increase was spurred by the debut of three new home launches in the quarter – SORA, Kassia, and 8@BT. Correspondingly, developers sold 1,160 units in 3Q 2024, marking a 60% q-o-q increase.

Chart 2: New Homes Launched and Sold (Excluding ECs)

Executive Condominium

Amid the lack of new Executive Condominium (EC) projects launched, developers sold 104 EC units in 3Q 2024. This figure represents a 28.8% q-o-q drop from the 146 units sold in 2Q 2024.

Resale and Sub-sales (excluding ECs)

Sales of private homes (excluding ECs) continue to be largely driven by resale transactions. Based on URA Realis data, resale transactions accounted for 71.9% of all private residential sales in 3Q 2024, closely aligning with the 77.4% share of 2Q 2024.

Likewise, the number of private homes (excluding ECs) transacted on the resale market rose slightly by 1.5% q-o-q, from 3,802 units in 2Q 2024 to 3,860 units in 3Q 2024.

In contrast, sub-sales of private homes (excluding ECs) fell in the quarter. Based on URA’s latest data, a total of 352 sub-sale transactions were recorded for 3Q 2024, reflecting a 10.2% q-o-q decline from the 388 transactions in 2Q 2024.

Despite these changes, buyer demand in the secondary market remained robust as the price gap between new launches and resale/sub-sale non-landed private homes remains significant. According to caveat data, the gap between median per square foot (psf) prices between the two is still substantial despite narrowing from 48.9% in 3Q 2023 to 31.6% in 3Q 2024.

Landed Homes

Table 4: Landed homes sold in each quarter

Prices of landed properties decreased by 3.4% in 3Q 2024, reversing the 1.9% increase in the previous quarter. In the same vein, the number of landed homes sold fell 9.6% q-o-q to 423 units in 3Q 2024. Landed home prices were dragged lower by the sale of 16 units, typically with shorter balance lease, for less than $1,000 psf this quarter. In additional, there was also an outlier freehold transaction sold for $42,000.

Leasing

Rentals of private residential properties increased by 0.8% in 3rd Quarter 2024, after three consecutive quarter of decline. Non-landed properties rents increased by 0.5% in 3Q 2024, compared with the 0.8% decrease in the previous quarter. Landed properties rents increased by 3.2% in 3Q 2024, compared with the 0.9% decrease in the previous quarter.

Rentals of non-landed properties in CCR decreased by 1.6% q-o-q in 3Q2024. Rentals in RCR and OCR increased by 1.7% and 2.2% q-o-q, following a decline last quarter.

A total of 24,121 non-landed rental contracts were recorded in 3Q 20242 marking a 22.2% q-o-q increase. This is the highest seen since 3Q 2022, where 24,283 contracts were lodged.

The rental market appears to have bottomed out, registering its first rental price growth after 3 quarter of decline. We have also observed a surge in non-landed rental contracts. But in 3Q 2024, we saw the completion of 3,953 private residential (including ECs) units which will add more leasing inventory in the market, providing tenants more options in the near futures. This could help keep rental price growth in check.

For media enquiries, please contact:

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]

SINGAPORE, 24 October 2024 – Record-setting land price and higher than usual number of bidders showcase developers’ confidence in the EC market

The top bid of $465 mil ($768 psf ppr) is just 1.6% higher than the next-highest bid of $458 mil ($756 psf ppr), this slim margin indicates close competition between bidders.

A total of five bids were received for this site, which is higher than what we have seen in the past GLS closings in 2024. But this pales in comparison to the nine bids received for the Tampines Street 62 Parcel B site closed in 2023. Nonetheless, the demand for the site was as expected. EC sites generally translate to lower risks for developers due to the lower development cost and higher demand from buyers drawn in by affordable prices compared to new private home launches.

Seperately, the recent interest rate cuts could be a stepping stone for developers to be on track in regaining confidence in the market and could be anticipating a more positive outlook on market conditions. 

But developers will need to price their units realistically in view of the income ceiling of $16,000 for ECs and the 30% Mortgage Servicing Ratio imposed on buyers.

 Plum EC Site in a Popular Town

Compared to the Jalan Loyang Besar and Tampines St 62 (Parcel B) sites, the smaller Tampines St 95 site could have been a more palatable development size for developers, especially for developers aspiring to penetrate the EC market. Tampines continues to be a popular location for developers, going on to sweep the title of Singapore’s most well-connected regional centre. Moreover, this site is within walking distance to Tampines West MRT Station and an upcoming integrated development that provides for residents’ needs. These factors are important to buyers today, which explains developers’ interest for the site.

Resilient buyers’ demand, depleting supply for new ECs

The last EC launch (Tenet) in Tampines sold 72.3% of its units at launch at an average price of $1,360 psf in December 2022. Additionally, the latest launch, Lumina Grand at Bukit Batok, in January 2024 saw 53% of its units transacted at launch. Despite market headwinds, demand for ECs have remained consistently healthy.

Given Altura’s and Lumina Grand’s median transacted prices are $1,479 and $1,524 respectively, we can expect the upcoming project to launch in the upwards of $1,600 psf. A 3-bedroom unit will be priced approximately from $1.5m. That could translate to significant cash outlay upfront, which can be managed by most of second timer buyers when they sell their existing flat.

Top bidder’s confidence buoyed by familiarity of Tampines

The top bidder, Sim Lian Group, could have been confident to pursue the site having developed familiarity with the market in Tampines from their previous private residential projects in the area. This includes Treasure at Tampines, The Tampines Trilliant, Centrale 8 at Tampines, Waterview and the EC site at Tampines Street 62 (Parcel A).

Sim Lian Group could have also placed a competitive bid in a strategic move given that they have successfully bidded for the Tampines Street 62 (Parcel A) in efforts to maintain launch prices.

For media enquiries, please contact:

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]